U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh just called U.S. inflation “concerning,” and his concern has a way of becoming Canada’s concern.
Bond markets took it badly, with U.S. five-year yields vaulting to a two-and-a-half-year high.
They also lifted implied probabilities for a September Fed rate hike to 61 per cent, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG).
That sort of hawkishness often spills over our border, keeping Canadian rates higher than they’d otherwise be.
Mind you, Canadian growth is forecast to slump for a spell as this moronic trade war gathers steam.
Economists figure our weaker output will absorb part of the price pressure new tariffs bring. And if they’re right, that might limit the upside for rates, at least from tariff impacts alone.
Meanwhile, median fixed mortgage rates in Canada are up roughly five to 15 basis points in the last month — nothing catastrophic.
We’ll want to watch for an upside breakout in the five-year Canadian yield, however. That would drive up leading fixed rates, which miraculously still sit in the low four per cent range — or even less for default-insured borrowers.
Robert McLister is a mortgage strategist, interest rate analyst and editor of MortgageLogic.news. You can follow him on X at @RobMcLister.
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